Quick links I go to (explanations below)

1. Lower Colorado Water Supply Report (Monday update)
2. Lake Powell Water Data (daily update)
   • …and Levels (daily update)
3. Lake Mead Water Data (daily update)
   • …and Levels (daily update)
4. Upper Colorado River Basin Snowpack (daily updates)
   • This is water to come down the pipe of the Colorado River this season.
   • 2026 looks to be dire. 2022 was an especially scary year with regards to reservoir levels, but look how much less snowpack is now, relative to 2022. Match that against Lake Powell and Mead water levels now and in 2022.
5. Salt and Verde River Data (daily update)
6. Arizona’s Declining Groundwater
   • July 2025 and they only say how much is going, I can’t find anyone who knows how much is left. Don’t know? Or don’t want to know?
7. World Surface Temperatures graphed since 1940 (daily update with 6 day lag)

Intro

Think of this like being on the Titanic, and awakened that the ships sinking. Sure, that’s rude. Sure, you might not like hearing it. And sure, it’s annoying to be told again and again by some guy who just won’t shut up about it. But given there’s probably not enough lifeboats, do you really want to be the last to know?

So this is for my homies who I think will be ruined (at best) with regards to any real estate and businesses they own in Arizona. Which for the United States is ground zero for climate change. And you don’t even have to believe in climate change, reservoir levels don’t lie.

Rapidly increasing population isn’t doing the region any favors, but at least, temporarily, is providing buyers for what I think are soon to become stranded asset. Think hot potato. So there’s still time to sell, rather than abandon assets and become a refugee, in what is almost sure to become a mass exodus. An exodus to someplace else that probably isn’t a land of milk and honey, and won’t be able to handle the influx, particularly not all at once.

That people are still moving to Arizona en masse definitely speaks to some kind of mass delusion, and lack of foresight for the almost immediate future. For those of us who grew up there, or moved there decades ago, it’s hard to blame them. Nobody talked about climate change back then, and the number of people relying on the now diminishing water levels was then dramatically less.

I’m hoping by looking at the links regularly my friends and family will internalize the rate of change, that isn’t being made obvious if you only look once.

Almost certainly you’re going to want to get out, before everyone else knows what’s up.

Anyway, feel free to ask me about my aspirational ecoVillage. I’ve got the land (157 acres) already, in one of the few places where global warming is making the weather better.

Preliminary facts

• In the links, all reservoir levels are presented as surface level “above sea level.” So when it says, for example, Lake Powell water level is 3526 feet, that’s not how deep the water is. Rather that’s how high the water is above sea level. Lake Powell hits minimum power pool (the depth at which the electric generators stop working) at 3490 feet. Lake Powell hits dead pool at 3370 feet.
• Lake Mead’s minimum power pool is 950 feet, and dead pool is 895.
• Both of these reservoirs are filled canyons, which means they are V-shaped. Such that there was way more water in every foot of depth at the top of the V when the reservoir was full than now that they are near their bottoms. Each remaining foot of depth contains ever less water than the last, and for equal amounts of water delivered downstream, the lakes empty ever faster. I think this should be alarming.

Full Lower Colorado Water Supply (updated Mondays)

The Lower Colorado Water Supply Report (U.S. Department of Interior) gives the best overall snapshot of the lower Colorado River. It gives a full picture report of the Southwest’s primary reservoirs, most notably Lakes Mead and Powell. At the time of my updating this (4-26-26) Lake Mead is at 32% capacity.

Usually, in this report, that comes out every Monday, I look at Total System Capacity. Also Lake Powell and Lake Mead Capacity.

Lakes Havasu and Mohave are relatively small and for as long as I have been watching (since 2020), have been topped off at more than 90%, serving as holding tanks for delivery of water to California. I would say to be worried if they drop below 90%, but I would already be worried.

Lake Powell is the Most Informative (daily updates)

Lake Powell Water Database (U.S. Bureau of Reclamation) and Levels (daily updates). Both of these sites are updated daily, and are pivotal for understanding the effects of global warming and local aridification.

The database link has a graph of water levels over the prior year, but it’s the fine print tables below the graph that are especially revealing. They include inflows (what’s truly coming down the Colorado River) vs what’s being let out. Scrolling down, this data is given in comparison to various averages, such as since the year 2000, since Powell was filled in 1980, and since the dam was completed in 1966. Crucially, current inflows are way less than all averages, even since the year 2000, when the “megadrought” is said to have started. So current conditions are way worse than the already megadrought, and you can see that the drought conditions are way worse than normal. It’s worth considering that this drought seems to be the result of human caused global warming and thus only expected to get worse, and not “return to normal.”

The levels link much of the same data, but is presented in a more visual format, showing where the lake levels are today in comparison to the last two years. If you hit the check boxes beneath, you can add three additional years. In doing so you can see that aside from the good water year of 2023, things are revisiting the record lows of 2022. In fact declining at an even faster rate. Below the graph it says “change since yesterday” usually with a down arrow in decimals of a foot. Every 0.08 feet is an inch, and I’ve seen the lakes drop as much as 4 inches in a day.

Lake Mead Specific (daily updates)

Lake Mead Water Data (U.S. Bureau of Reclamation) and Levels. For now I would consider these sites less important, particularly the water data, as about 85% of the water making it into Lake Mead is what’s released from Lake Powell and therefore what’s incoming is not as true a measure of what Mother Nature is sending down the pipe per recent rain and snowfall.

To look at Lake Mead alone could give a false impression of assurance, however bleak, as Mead “percent full” is quite low (32% last time I checked). With Powell nearing dead pool, Mead won’t be propped up for long.

I would expect both lakes to drop off in tandem given Powell’s levels have little more to give up, and both lakes residual water heights are at the bottom of the V, so to speak. I do read that they’re sending water again from Flaming Gorge in Wyoming, so with the above links we can see how much effect that will have.

The Levels links for both Powell and Mead, when scrolled down, show updated visuals of the U.S Drought Monitor. Which for as long as I have watched (since 2019) it’s not looked good for the entire Southwestern United States. It’s weird that I lived in Arizona through 20 years of a megadrought and heard nothing of it. I guess talking about it is some kind of taboo. Bad for business.

Snowpack (daily updates)

Upper Colorado River Basin Snowpack (daily updates). I just became aware of this site, and it gives more context and forewarning.

Overwhelmingly, this is where the Colorado River water comes from.

I’m writing this entry in April of 2026, and based on it, I can tell it’s going to be a bad year. But don’t take my word for it, look for yourself.

What you can see, so far in the Spring of 2026, is that there wasn’t very much snow accumulation to begin with. But with the record heat levels in the Southwest, what little snow there was is all but gone in mid-April. This is when snow levels should be at there highest. With Lake Powell re-approaching record low levels, it doesn’t take a lot of imagination to see how the rest of 2026 will play out.

Also looking at 2026 snowpack being the worst in the last 10 years, and well below the 10-year average. That average was megadrought average.

Salt/Verde River Specific (daily updates)

Salt and Verde River Data (Salt River Project)

Until recently the Salt and Verde River flow rates and reservoir levels have held up, per my recollected observations, so I hadn’t given them a very close look. However, this might be changing as of the past year. The above link (last time I checked) shows the total system contents to be at 55%, down from 68% a year ago.

I’m unsure if this is because of lesser precipitation, or if already instigated water cuts of Arizona’s water usage of the Colorado River, has only caused increased utilization and drainage of the Salt and Verde River associated reservoirs. And increased usage of groundwater. However, increased use, lesser supply, or both (which is what I expect) leads to much the same result. Record high temperatures increasing evaporation of lake water is surely not doing the region any favors.

About that groundwater.

It’s declining, rapidly, says NASA. But what worries me is that the image only shows how much is being lost. It doesn’t say how much is left and I read both studies…

The 2025 study.

The 2014 study.

…that the linked image pertains to.

Both papers make for very interesting reading. The 2025 paper, is like, “look how much water was lost since we last looked, as if it were recent. Whereas the 2014 authors were plenty alarmed by how much groundwater had already been lost. Someone tell me if I’m wrong, but I couldn’t find in either paper an estimate of how much groundwater was left. That seems an important detail. So I’m left wondering, is it they don’t know, or don’t want to say. At least with lake water you can see it.

And as much as I hear developers having to promise 100 years of water to build and sell houses (why would they lie?), I have to think their estimates weren’t taking climate change or a megadrought (pick one) into account. So if anyone has better data on this, please let me know.

Global Surface Temperatures

Climate ReAnalyzer by the University of Maine, tracks and interactively graphs world temperatures daily, with data going back to 1940, and is updated with only a 6-day lag.

It’s a remarkable chart making global warming over time extremely visible. The 1.5 degrees C, that the world wasn’t supposed to cross per the Paris Agreement? We crossed it in 2023.

Conclusion

I think people should look at the charts, regularly, maybe do a little math, and draw their own conclusions. While estimates are to some degree uncertain, and certainly the weather is, I would ask myself things like:

• If next year looks like this year, what will next year’s Mead and Powell water levels look like?
• If people and businesses are still moving to Arizona, doesn’t that make things worse?
• How long can this collective delusion hold up?
• Since all the websites I cited are in the public domain, and aren’t exactly secret, how long can this reality stay out of the collective consciousness?
• What will people’s inevitable realization of that do to Arizona home and business values?
• If global warming is getting worse, and not better, what does that mean for the immediate future?
• If Climate Change (aka Global Warming) is making almost everywhere worse, where might it be making things, at least in some ways, better?

Anyway, about that ecoVillage I’m always talking about…