Intro

Think of this like being on the Titanic and awakened to the fact that the ship is sinking. Sure, that’s rude. Sure, you might not like hearing it. And sure, it’s annoying to be told again and again by some guy who just won’t shut up about it. But given there’s probably not enough lifeboats, do you really want to be the last to know?

So this is for my homies who I think will be ruined (at best) regarding any real estate and businesses they own in Arizona. Which, for the United States, is ground zero for climate change. And you don’t even have to believe in climate change; reservoir levels don’t lie.

Rapidly increasing population isn’t doing the region any favors, but at least, temporarily, it is providing buyers for what I think are soon to become stranded assets. Think hot potato. So there’s still time to sell, rather than abandon assets and become a refugee, in what is almost sure to become a mass exodus. An exodus to someplace else that probably isn’t a land of milk and honey and won’t be able to handle the influx, particularly not all at once.

That people are still moving to Arizona en masse definitely speaks to some kind of mass delusion and lack of foresight for the almost immediate future. For those of us who grew up there or moved there decades ago, it’s hard to blame them. Nobody talked about climate change back then, and the number of people relying on the now diminishing water levels was then dramatically less.

I’m hoping by looking at the links regularly my friends and family will internalize the rate of change that isn’t being made obvious if you only look once.

Almost certainly you’re going to want to get out before everyone else knows what’s up.

Anyway, feel free to ask me about my aspirational ecoVillage. I’ve got the land (157 acres) already, in one of the few places where global warming is seeming to make the weather better.

Preliminary facts

• In the links, all reservoir levels are presented as “surface level” above sea level.” So when it says, for example, Lake Powell’s water level is 3526 feet, that’s not how deep the water is. Rather, that’s how high the water is above sea level. Lake Powell hits minimum power pool (the depth at which the electric generators stop working) at 3490 feet. Lake Powell hits its official dead pool at 3370 feet.
  • New news regarding Glen Canyon Dam at Lake Powell is that dead pool is now effectively 3500 feet, as there was a discovery in 2023 of extensive damage to the lower outlets of the dam, and it is no longer considered reliable.
• Lake Mead’s minimum power pool is 950 feet, and dead pool is 895.
• Both of these reservoirs are filled canyons, which means they are V-shaped. Such that there was way more water in every foot of depth at the top of the V when the reservoir was full than now that they are near their bottoms. Each remaining foot of depth contains ever less water than the last, and for equal amounts of water delivered downstream, the lakes empty ever faster. I think this should be alarming.

Full Lower Colorado Water Supply (updated Mondays)

The Lower Colorado Water Supply Report (U.S. Department of Interior) gives the best overall snapshot of the lower Colorado River. It gives a full picture report of the Southwest’s primary reservoirs, most notably Lakes Mead and Powell. At the time of my updating this (4-26-26), Lake Mead is at 32% capacity.

Usually, in this report that comes out every Monday, I look at Total System Capacity. Furthermore, Lake Powell and Lake Mead Capacity.

Lakes Havasu and Mohave are relatively small and, for as long as I have been watching (since 2020), have been topped off at more than 90%, serving as holding tanks for delivery of water to California. I would say to be worried if they drop below 90%, but I would already be worried.

Lake Powell is the most informative (updated daily)

Lake Powell Water Database (U.S. Bureau of Reclamation) and Levels (daily updates). Both of these sites are updated daily and are pivotal for understanding the effects of global warming and local aridification.

The database link has a graph of water levels over the prior year, but it’s the fine print tables below the graph that are especially revealing. They include inflows (what’s truly coming down the Colorado River) vs. what’s being let out. Scrolling down, this data is given in comparison to various averages, such as since the year 2000, since Powell was filled in 1980, and since the dam was completed in 1966. Crucially, current inflows are way less than all averages, even since the year 2000, when the “megadrought” is said to have started. So current conditions are way worse than the already megadrought, and you can see that the drought conditions are way worse than normal. It’s worth considering that this drought seems to be the result of human-caused global warming and thus is only expected to get worse and not “return to normal.”

The levels link presents much of the same data in a more visual format, showing where the lake levels are today in comparison to the last two years.

If you hit the check boxes beneath, you can add three additional years. In doing so, you can see that, aside from the good water year of 2023, things are revisiting the record lows of 2022. In fact, it is declining at an even faster rate. Below the graph it says “change since yesterday,” usually with a down arrow in decimals of a foot. Every 0.08 feet is an inch, and I’ve seen the lakes drop as much as 4 inches in a day.

Lake Mead Specific (updated daily)

Lake Mead Water Data (U.S. Bureau of Reclamation) and Levels. For now I would consider these sites less important from an understanding perspective. Particularly the water data, as about 85% of the water making it into Lake Mead is simply what’s released from Lake Powell. And therefore what’s incoming is not as true a measure of what Mother Nature is sending down the pipe per recent rain and snowfall. However, as Powell is approaching its now “effective dead pool” and is ever less able to buffer Lake Mead, Mead’s flow rates and levels are becoming more relevant. From a survival/real estate value perspective, Lake Mead water levels are crucial.

To look at Lake Mead alone could give a false impression of assurance, however bleak, as Mead’s “percent full” is quite low (32% last time I checked). With Powell nearing dead pool, Mead won’t be propped up for long.

I would expect both lakes to drop off in tandem, given Powell’s levels have little more to give up, and both lakes residual water heights are at the bottom of the V, so to speak. I do read that they’re sending water again from Flaming Gorge in Wyoming, so with the above links we can see how much effect that will have.

The Levels links for both Powell and Mead, when scrolled down, show updated visuals of the U.S. Drought Monitor. Which, for as long as I have watched (since 2019), has not looked good for the entire Southwestern United States. It’s weird that I lived in Arizona through 20 years of a megadrought and heard nothing of it. I guess talking about it is some kind of taboo. Bad for business.

Flaming Gorge Specific (updated daily)

Since reading a few weeks back that the Bureau of Reclamation is sending water again from Flaming Gorge in Wyoming/Utah, I did notice inflows into Powell were on the rise. So today (May 8, 2026), I thought to look up where Flaming Gorge was.

The Flaming Gorge Dam is in northern Utah and dams the Green River, with some, if not the bulk, of the reservoir being in the Green River valley across the border in Wyoming. When released, water continues down the Green River and joins the Colorado River in what’s called the confluence in Canyonlands National Park in Utah.

Google says it’s about 450 river miles from the Flaming Gorge Dam to Lake Powell, taking the water 4-5 days to arrive.

I looked to see if my favored sources of daily updates covered the flows and levels of the Flaming Gorge Reservoir, and here we are.

Flaming Gorge Water Data (the best flow data, current and past 10 years, updated daily)

Flaming Gorge Water Levels (better visualization of water levels over the last five years, updated daily)

I have to say the impact is quite striking. I intend to watch it over time and get a feel for how much drop/release from Flaming Gorge affects Powell. One thing’s for certain. The flows coming out of Flaming Gorge vastly exceed what’s coming in. At first glance it seems to me that while Flaming Gorge is today 78% full, it’s a much smaller reservoir than Powell, having a content today of  2,907,899 acre-feet. This is in comparison to Lake Powell, which has 5,599,755 acre-feet despite being only 23% full. And how much of Powell’s 23% remaining is accessible since damage to the lower water release pipes has raised the effective dead pool to 3500 feet (just 26 feet below where we are today)?

The minimum power pool for Flaming Gorge is 3,490 feet (above sea level), with the dead pool at 3,370 feet.

Snowpack (updated daily)

Upper Colorado River Basin Snowpack (daily updates). I just became aware of this site, and it gives more context and forewarning.

Overwhelmingly, this is where the Colorado River water comes from.

I’m writing this entry in April of 2026, and based on it, I can tell it’s going to be a bad year. But don’t take my word for it; look for yourself.

What you can see, so far in the spring of 2026, is that there wasn’t very much snow accumulation to begin with. But with the record heat levels in the Southwest, what little snow there was is all but gone in mid-April. This is when snow levels should be at their highest. With Lake Powell re-approaching record low levels, it doesn’t take a lot of imagination to see how the rest of 2026 will play out.

Also looking at 2026 snowpack being the worst in the past 10 years and well below the 10-year average. That average was the megadrought average.

Salt/Verde River Specific (updated daily)

Salt and Verde River Data (Salt River Project)

Until recently the Salt and Verde River flow rates and reservoir levels have held up, per my recollected observations, so I hadn’t given them a very close look. However, this might be changing as of the past year. The above link (last time I checked) shows the total system contents to be at 55%, down from 68% a year ago.

I’m unsure if this is because of lesser precipitation or if already instigated water cuts of Arizona’s water usage of the Colorado River have only caused increased utilization and drainage of the Salt and Verde River-associated reservoirs. And increased usage of groundwater. However, increased use, lesser supply, or both (which is what I expect) leads to much the same result. Record high temperatures increasing evaporation of lake water are surely not doing the region any favors.

And about that groundwater…

It’s declining, rapidly, says NASA. But what worries me is that the image only shows how much is being lost. It doesn’t say how much is left, and I read both studies…

The 2025 study.

The 2014 study.

…that the linked image pertains to.

Both papers make for very interesting reading. The 2025 paper is like, “Look how much water was lost since we last looked,” as if it were recent. Whereas the 2014 authors were plenty alarmed by how much groundwater had already been lost. Someone tell me if I’m wrong, but I couldn’t find in either paper an estimate of how much groundwater was left. That seems an important detail. So I’m left wondering, is it that they don’t know or don’t want to say? At least with lake water you can see it.

And as much as I hear developers having to promise 100 years of water to build and sell houses (why would they lie?), I have to think their estimates weren’t taking climate change or a megadrought (pick one) into account. So if anyone has better data on this, please let me know.

Global Surface Temperatures

Climate ReAnalyzer by the University of Maine tracks and interactively graphs world temperatures daily, with data going back to 1940, and is updated daily with a 6-day lag.

It’s a remarkable chart making global warming over time extremely visible. The 1.5 degrees C that the world wasn’t supposed to cross per the Paris Agreement? We crossed it in 2023.

Recent/Noteworthy News

• 2026 Lake Powell forecast to receive 13% of its usual flows, new report shows
• In 2021, three Colorado River Basin reservoirs will be partially drained to keep Lake Powell producing hydropower
  • Specifically Flaming Gorge, which, as mentioned above, they’re going to again in 2026, but also Blue Mesa and Navajo Reservoirs, both in Colorado.
  • Blue Mesa Water Data
    • …and Levels
  • Lake Navajo Water Data
    • and Levels

Conclusion

I think people should look at the charts regularly, maybe do a little math, and draw their own conclusions. While estimates are to some degree uncertain, and certainly the weather is, I would ask myself things like:

• If next year looks like this year, what will next year’s Mead and Powell water levels look like?
• If people and businesses are still moving to Arizona, doesn’t that make things worse?
• How long can this collective delusion hold up?
• Since all the websites I cited are in the public domain and aren’t exactly secret, how long can this reality stay out of the collective consciousness?
• What will people’s inevitable realization of that do to Arizona home and business values?
• If global warming is getting worse and not better, what does that mean for the immediate future?
• If climate change (aka global warming) is making almost everywhere worse, where might it be making things, at least in some ways, better?

Anyway, about that ecoVillage I’m always talking about…